Why 2026 will be about trade-offs, not breakthrough fuels

In 2026, shipping’s decarbonisation will be less about bold targets and more about practical choices, rules, and costs. After a slow 2025, the industry still faces familiar problems: big climate goals, limited fuel supply, uneven rules, and regulations moving faster than the market can handle.

 

Next year won’t see a single clean fuel take over. Shipowners will need to manage short-term compliance, patchy policies, and budget decisions. Rules are ahead of fuel supply, and politics often ignores practical limits. IMO’s net-zero plans continue, but timelines will slip. A global fuel standard is still far off, and differences between countries make enforcement uneven.

 

FuelEU Maritime is now the main test. Biofuel trials continue, but supply is inconsistent and costs are high. Pooling fuels is becoming a cheaper and simpler solution. Digital tools like emissions tracking, voyage planning, and vessel digital twins will be essential. Accurate, ready-to-audit emissions data will be needed every day.

 

Who pays for emissions under FuelEU may cause disputes between owners and charterers. Decisions will depend on emissions, transparency, and reliable data, not just freight rates. Slow steaming will stay useful where schedules allow.

 

Worldwide, agreement on clean fuels is unlikely. Governments need revenue, and carbon pricing helps, even as climate goals remain. Scope 3 reporting adds pressure on cargo owners to cut emissions now, creating more demand for certified biofuels, pooling, and proven efficiency gains.

 

For 2026, flexibility is key. Owners should pool fuels to manage risk, use biofuels where available, rely on LNG or bio-LNG where allowed, and improve operations constantly. How revenue from ETS and FuelEU is used will affect whether these rules help the transition or just add costs.

 

Ammonia and methanol will not take off next year. Confidence in dual-fuel ships is falling. Instead, 2026 will be about safe, practical decisions as the industry adapts and policymakers continue to debate costs, benefits, and global rules.

 

Source: Splash 247, Philippos Ioulianou

Picture: iStockphoto